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enjingamesandroid| Shen Wanhongyuan: Short-term lack of new offensive direction, bargain hunting layout broad high dividends

editor 2024-05-26 21 0

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Source: Shen Wanhongyuan

First, the reason for the short-term adjustment: the high catalytic density of real estate policy is also the stage high of the expected fermentation of improved domestic demand, and the high-cut and low market since late April has come to an end. The early market money-making effect has spread to a high level, the short-term lack of a new offensive direction, the money-making effect shrank in reason.

Since late April, the "high cut low" market continues to interpret, domestic stable growth and real estate underwriting policy increase is the core clue. During this period, the market continued to have confidence in the policy catalysis, supporting the expected improvement in domestic demand in the second quarter. However, there are still great differences in the market on the effectiveness of the policy. Therefore, the driving force affecting the strength of the short-term market is the policy catalytic density. Last Friday, the real estate policy ushered in the stage high of catalytic density, corresponding to the effect observation period of real estate policy, but also corresponding to the high point of expected fermentation of improved domestic demand, the repair of real estate chain and domestic demand cycle came to an end. At the same time, the direction of relatively high performance price in the short term is technological growth, and the continuation of the "high and low cut" market in the short term may require a relay of scientific and technological growth. However, two rebound opportunities have been missed in the short term, one is the upward revision of the Fed's interest rate cut expectations, and the other is the better-than-expected short-term performance of Nvidia. This reflects that the role of overseas catalysis in boosting the growth of domestic science and technology has been limited, and we need to wait for the catalysis of domestic AI application industry. The rebound in technology has not been strong, and the high-cut and low market since late April has come to an end. The early market money-making effect has spread to a high level, the short-term lack of a new offensive direction, the money-making effect shrank in reason. At present, the performance-to-price ratio of the market only falls back to the middle, and it is still an adjustment band in the short term.

Second, the judgment that should be adhered to during the adjustment period: there is no significant downside risk in the market is still the benchmark judgment. Export chain, consumption, cycle are all Alpha strong, Beta improvement is difficult to sustain. The macro environment which is conducive to the dominance of high dividend assets in the first quarter has not changed fundamentally, and the judgment that the broad sense of high dividend investment is the main line of the year remains unchanged.

Adjust the window, need to think about which mid-term judgments need to adhere to.EnjingamesandroidWe suggest three points: 1. The absence of significant downside risks in the market is still a benchmark judgment. Until July, market expectations for policy will still effectively support risk appetite. 2. The pattern of "the overall resilience of the market is better than expected and the structural persistence is weaker than expected" remains unchanged. Export chain, consumption, cycle are all Alpha strong, Beta improvement is difficult to sustain. The new main line is not easy to appear, the medium-term market upward space is also limited, to maintain the shock market judgment. 3. The economy improved in the second quarter, but it is doubtful whether it can continue to improve in the third quarter. The medium-term downward trend of risk-free interest rates is not over. The macro environment, which is conducive to the dominance of high dividend assets in the first quarter, has not changed fundamentally. Continue to be optimistic about the broad sense of high dividend investment as the main line for the whole year.

Third, after the pullback, the direction that is more worthy of bargain-hunting is still high dividend in a broad sense, and continue to recommend electricity, home appliances and spirits, coal, oil and non-ferrous metals. The boosting effect of overseas catalysis on A-share technology stocks has been limited, and it is reiterated that the condition for an effective rebound in science and technology is domestic industrial catalysis. There is a high probability that there is a later move in the real estate policy, and the real estate stocks are waiting for the short-term performance-to-price ratio to be improved.

The broad sense of high dividend is the main line of the year, and it is the first Alpha direction chosen by the market in 2024. Electricity, household appliances and spirits, coal, oil and non-ferrous metals are still the key directions in the medium term. Short-term adjustment is a layout opportunity. 2. It is the dominant strategy in concussion city to allocate high performance-price ratio to hold shares to rise. Continue to suggest that science and technology is a short-term cost-effective direction, market adjustment stage, the plate performance-to-price ratio continues to improve. The development of domestic AI industry is owned by people.EnjingamesandroidI have ", the progress of big models and the catalysis of popular style applications are mainly a matter of time." In the stage when the performance-to-price ratio is enough to make up for the time cost, it is still worth actively configuring. 3. The reduction of the catalytic density of real estate policy, the adjustment period of real estate stock-real estate chain, there is a high probability of real estate policy. After the improvement of short-term performance-price ratio, real estate stocks are also worth bargain allocation, waiting for the accumulation of follow-up policy effects, quantitative change to qualitative change.

In terms of Hong Kong stocks, early-stage foreign investment and southward domestic investment concentrated on the revaluation of Hong Kong stocks. The trend attribute of marginal trading funds is strong, and the protection of allocation funds is weak, which determines that Hong Kong stocks will be characterized by high Beta in the short term, with greater flexibility in the rising stage and faster speed in the adjustment stage. We suggest that the high dividend of Hong Kong stocks and the correction of the Internet are also worth looking for bargains.

enjingamesandroid| Shen Wanhongyuan: Short-term lack of new offensive direction, bargain hunting layout broad high dividends

Risk hint: the overseas recession exceeded expectations, and the domestic economic recovery fell short of expectations.